Data Source: The Racing API. Provides racecards, runner data, trainer/jockey statistics, form strings, speed ratings (Timeform TS), and RPR (Racing Post Rating). Limitations: No historical going preference, no jockey 14-day form, no horse-level past runs.
Scoring Model: Each horse receives a 0–10 score across 8 weighted factors. The composite score is a weighted average, converted to probability by dividing by the sum of all composite scores in the race.
Value Flag: Model% vs Market%. Model% = horse's composite ÷ sum of all composites. Market% = 1 ÷ decimal odds. Value fires when Model% exceeds Market% by ≥5 percentage points — indicating the model rates the horse higher than the market.
Betting Suggestions: Top value picks are combined into multiples using standard bookmaker odds multiplication. Double, Treble, Trixie, Yankee, Lucky 15, and 5-Fold Acca combinations are generated. Odds shown are best-case (all selections win).
Peer Review: Weightings are experimental and based on domain knowledge rather than statistical backtesting. Feedback welcome on factor weights, scoring thresholds, and probability calibration.
Based on top value picks (model probability > market by ≥5pts). Estimated odds calculated using standard bookmaker multiplication. Returns shown are best-case (all selections win).
⚠️ These are model-generated suggestions based on value flags. Each-way options may be preferable for longer odds. Consider stakes carefully.
| # | Horse | Odds | Form | Form30% | Speed15% | Going5% | C&D15% | Class15% | Conn.10% | Wgt5% | Draw5% | Total | Model% | Mkt% | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sober Glory T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson WhiteJ: Ben Jones |
17.5 | 1-1411 | 7.67 | 9.9% | 5.7% | +4.2 | ||||||||
| 2 | Mydaddypaddy T: Dan SkeltonJ: Harry Skelton |
11/1 | 1-112 | 7.59 | 9.8% | 8.3% | +1.5 | ||||||||
| 3 | Old Park Star T: Nicky HendersonJ: Nico de Boinville |
3.6 | 23-111 | 7.11 | 9.2% | 27.4% | -18.2 | ||||||||
| 4 | Leader d'Allier T: W P MullinsJ: Paul Townend |
14/1 | -11121 | 6.93 | 8.9% | 6.7% | +2.2 | ||||||||
| 5 | Talk The Talk T: Joseph Patrick O'BrienJ: J J Slevin |
5/1 | 2-11F1 | 6.72 | 8.7% | 16.7% | -8.0 | ||||||||
| 6 | Mighty Park T: W P MullinsJ: Mark Walsh |
5.5 | 2-1 | 6.71 | 8.6% | 18.2% | -9.6 | ||||||||
| 7 | Koktail Brut⭐ VALUE T: Gordon ElliottJ: Danny Gilligan |
80/1 | -51174 | 6.48 | 8.3% | 1.2% | +7.1 | ||||||||
| 8 | Eachtotheirown⭐ VALUE T: Barry ConnellJ: Sean Flanagan |
79/1 | 22-151 | 6.32 | 8.1% | 1.2% | +6.9 | ||||||||
| 9 | Baron Noir⭐ VALUE T: Alan KingJ: Tom Bellamy |
41/1 | 3-1211 | 6.07 | 7.8% | 2.4% | +5.4 | ||||||||
| 10 | El Cairos T: Gordon ElliottJ: Jack Kennedy |
8/1 | 15-2F1 | 5.52 | 7.1% | 11.1% | -4.0 | ||||||||
| 11 | Sageborough⭐ VALUE T: Paul NolanJ: Sean O'Keeffe |
329/1 | 17 | 5.45 | 7.0% | 0.3% | +6.7 | ||||||||
| 12 | Too Bossy For Us T: W P MullinsJ: Harry Cobden |
54/1 | 7-51 | 5.06 | 6.5% | 1.8% | +4.7 |
| # | Horse | Odds | Form | Form30% | Speed15% | Going5% | C&D15% | Class15% | Conn.10% | Wgt5% | Draw5% | Total | Model% | Mkt% | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lulamba T: Nicky HendersonJ: Nico de Boinville |
2.8 | 2-1111 | 8.16 | 16.4% | 36.4% | -20.0 | ||||||||
| 2 | Kargese T: W P MullinsJ: Danny Mullins |
7.2 | 1-3212 | 7.85 | 15.8% | 13.9% | +1.9 | ||||||||
| 3 | Steel Ally⭐ VALUE T: Sam ThomasJ: Dylan Johnston |
14/1 | 2P-111 | 7.23 | 14.5% | 6.7% | +7.8 | ||||||||
| 4 | Jax Junior⭐ VALUE T: Lucy WadhamJ: Tom Cannon |
23/1 | -21411 | 7.20 | 14.5% | 4.2% | +10.3 | ||||||||
| 5 | Kopek Des Bordes T: W P MullinsJ: Paul Townend |
2.7 | 111-41 | 7.08 | 14.2% | 36.8% | -22.6 | ||||||||
| 6 | Mambonumberfive⭐ VALUE T: Ben PaulingJ: Ben Jones |
40/1 | 7-1113 | 6.66 | 13.4% | 2.4% | +11.0 | ||||||||
| 7 | Hansard⭐ VALUE T: Gary & Josh MooreJ: Caoilin Quinn |
100/1 | 97-412 | 5.57 | 11.2% | 1.0% | +10.2 |
| # | Horse | Odds | Form | Form30% | Speed15% | Going5% | C&D15% | Class15% | Conn.10% | Wgt5% | Draw5% | Total | Model% | Mkt% | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manlaga T: Nicky HendersonJ: Nico de Boinville |
7/1 | 1-21 | 6.76 | 5.0% | 12.5% | -7.5 | ||||||||
| 2 | Mustang Du Breuil T: Nicky HendersonJ: James Bowen |
16/1 | 113 | 6.69 | 4.9% | 5.9% | -1.0 | ||||||||
| 3 | Ammes T: James OwenJ: Sean Bowen |
10/1 | 112 | 6.61 | 4.9% | 9.1% | -4.2 | ||||||||
| 4 | Winston Junior T: Faye BramleyJ: Jack Kennedy |
7/1 | 221 | 6.39 | 4.7% | 12.5% | -7.8 | ||||||||
| 5 | Paddockwood T: Ben PaulingJ: Ben Jones |
99/1 | 1415 | 6.25 | 4.6% | 1.0% | +3.6 | ||||||||
| 6 | Bibe Mus T: Paul NichollsJ: Sam Twiston-Davies |
27/1 | 13221 | 6.12 | 4.5% | 3.6% | +0.9 | ||||||||
| 7 | Madness d'Elle T: W P MullinsJ: Danny Mullins |
27/1 | 321 | 6.07 | 4.5% | 3.6% | +0.9 | ||||||||
| 8 | Dignam T: Joseph Patrick O'BrienJ: Richard Deegan |
24/1 | 1115 | 5.99 | 4.4% | 4.0% | +0.4 | ||||||||
| 9 | Lord T: Donald McCainJ: William Maggs(5) |
109/1 | 111612 | 5.94 | 4.4% | 0.9% | +3.5 | ||||||||
| 10 | Macktoad T: Gary & Josh MooreJ: Caoilin Quinn |
84/1 | 1145 | 5.91 | 4.3% | 1.2% | +3.1 | ||||||||
| 11 | Quinta Do Lago T: Mrs John HarringtonJ: Donagh Meyler |
28/1 | 1163 | 5.85 | 4.3% | 3.4% | +0.9 | ||||||||
| 12 | Harwa T: Paul NolanJ: Sean Flanagan |
33/1 | 221 | 5.84 | 4.3% | 2.9% | +1.4 | ||||||||
| 13 | Klycot T: Richard J BandeyJ: Harry Bannister |
49/1 | 4121 | 5.83 | 4.3% | 2.0% | +2.3 | ||||||||
| 14 | Pourquoi Pas Papa T: Paul NichollsJ: Harry Cobden |
28/1 | 22212 | 5.82 | 4.3% | 3.4% | +0.9 | ||||||||
| 15 | Bertutea T: W P MullinsJ: Sean O'Keeffe |
49/1 | 32-1P | 5.62 | 4.1% | 2.0% | +2.1 | ||||||||
| 16 | Ole Ole T: Gavin CromwellJ: Keith Donoghue |
28/1 | 3222 | 5.56 | 4.1% | 3.4% | +0.7 | ||||||||
| 17 | Barbizon T: Gordon ElliottJ: Josh Williamson(5) |
35/1 | 146 | 5.36 | 3.9% | 2.8% | +1.1 | ||||||||
| 18 | Bandjo T: Georgina NichollsJ: Finn Lambert(3) |
169/1 | 6712F6 | 5.36 | 3.9% | 0.6% | +3.3 | ||||||||
| 19 | Saratoga T: Padraig RocheJ: Mark Walsh |
7/1 | 332 | 5.14 | 3.8% | 12.5% | -8.7 | ||||||||
| 20 | Hardy Stuff T: Gordon ElliottJ: Sam Ewing |
41/1 | P417 | 4.86 | 3.6% | 2.4% | +1.2 | ||||||||
| 21 | The Mighty Celt T: Dan SkeltonJ: Harry Skelton |
22/1 | -32283 | 4.74 | 3.5% | 4.3% | -0.8 | ||||||||
| 22 | Munsif T: C ByrnesJ: Philip Byrnes |
12.5 | 353 | 4.72 | 3.5% | 8.0% | -4.5 | ||||||||
| 23 | Glen To Glen T: Joseph Patrick O'BrienJ: J J Slevin |
10/1 | 571 | 4.42 | 3.2% | 9.1% | -5.9 | ||||||||
| 24 | Mino Des Mottes T: W P MullinsJ: Brian Hayes |
54/1 | U1452 | 4.25 | 3.1% | 1.8% | +1.3 |
| # | Horse | Odds | Form | Form30% | Speed15% | Going5% | C&D15% | Class15% | Conn.10% | Wgt5% | Draw5% | Total | Model% | Mkt% | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quebecois T: Paul NichollsJ: Harry Cobden |
11.5 | 1-2422 | 7.75 | 5.5% | 8.7% | -3.2 | ||||||||
| 2 | Jagwar T: Oliver Greenall & Josh GuerrieroJ: Mark Walsh |
5.4 | 311-32 | 7.72 | 5.5% | 18.5% | -13.0 | ||||||||
| 3 | Leave Of Absence T: Anthony HoneyballJ: Rex Dingle |
21/1 | 1-1P23 | 7.53 | 5.3% | 4.5% | +0.8 | ||||||||
| 4 | Myretown T: Lucinda Russell & Michael ScudamoreJ: Derek Fox |
14.5 | 11-F4P | 7.50 | 5.3% | 6.9% | -1.6 | ||||||||
| 5 | Margaret's Legacy T: Warren GreatrexJ: Harry Bannister |
129/1 | 11-246 | 7.17 | 5.1% | 0.8% | +4.3 | ||||||||
| 6 | Knight Of Allen T: Jane WilliamsJ: Ciaran Gethings |
37/1 | 1-2142 | 7.12 | 5.0% | 2.6% | +2.4 | ||||||||
| 7 | Filanderer T: Hughie MorrisonJ: Jonathan Burke |
89/1 | 11-151 | 7.10 | 5.0% | 1.1% | +3.9 | ||||||||
| 8 | Konfusion T: Joel Parkinson & Sue SmithJ: Callum Bewley |
23/1 | -1U113 | 6.88 | 4.9% | 4.2% | +0.7 | ||||||||
| 9 | Iroko T: Oliver Greenall & Josh GuerrieroJ: Jonjo O'Neill Jr |
7.4 | 424-21 | 6.75 | 4.8% | 13.5% | -8.7 | ||||||||
| 10 | Handstands T: Ben PaulingJ: Ben Jones |
12/1 | 1P-243 | 6.57 | 4.7% | 7.7% | -3.0 | ||||||||
| 11 | Imperial Saint T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson WhiteJ: Callum Pritchard(3) |
41/1 | 42-561 | 6.57 | 4.7% | 2.4% | +2.3 | ||||||||
| 12 | Hyland T: Nicky HendersonJ: Nico de Boinville |
14/1 | 2P-974 | 6.51 | 4.6% | 6.7% | -2.1 | ||||||||
| 13 | Blaze The Way T: Ms Margaret MullinsJ: Danny Mullins |
28/1 | 562415 | 6.40 | 4.5% | 3.4% | +1.1 | ||||||||
| 14 | Johnnywho T: Jonjo & A J O'NeillJ: Richie McLernon |
14.5 | 25-535 | 6.21 | 4.4% | 6.9% | -2.5 | ||||||||
| 15 | Resplendent Grey T: Olly MurphyJ: Sean Bowen |
20/1 | 41-102 | 6.15 | 4.4% | 4.8% | -0.4 | ||||||||
| 16 | The Doyen Chief T: Alan KingJ: Tom Bellamy |
64/1 | -2P512 | 6.11 | 4.3% | 1.5% | +2.8 | ||||||||
| 17 | Blow Your Wad T: Gary & Josh MooreJ: Freddie Mitchell(3) |
28/1 | 5-3732 | 5.85 | 4.1% | 3.4% | +0.7 | ||||||||
| 18 | Eyed T: Hughie MorrisonJ: Sam Twiston-Davies |
199/1 | 24-275 | 5.84 | 4.1% | 0.5% | +3.6 | ||||||||
| 19 | Patter Merchant T: Gordon ElliottJ: Jack Kennedy |
59/1 | -32530 | 5.75 | 4.1% | 1.7% | +2.4 | ||||||||
| 20 | Search For Glory T: Gordon ElliottJ: James Smith(5) |
64/1 | 0-022P | 5.01 | 3.5% | 1.5% | +2.0 | ||||||||
| 21 | The Short Go T: Henry De BromheadJ: Darragh O'Keeffe |
35/1 | F5-P43 | 4.81 | 3.4% | 2.8% | +0.6 | ||||||||
| 22 | Stolen Silver T: Georgina NichollsJ: Miss Olive Nicholls(5) |
139/1 | 64-0P3 | 3.98 | 2.8% | 0.7% | +2.1 |
| # | Horse | Odds | Form | Form30% | Speed15% | Going5% | C&D15% | Class15% | Conn.10% | Wgt5% | Draw5% | Total | Model% | Mkt% | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lossiemouth T: W P MullinsJ: Paul Townend |
3.2 | 11-112 | 8.59 | 12.6% | 31.2% | -18.6 | ||||||||
| 2 | Golden Ace T: Jeremy ScottJ: Lorcan Williams |
10/1 | 1-2212 | 8.44 | 12.4% | 9.1% | +3.3 | ||||||||
| 3 | Alexei⭐ VALUE T: Joe TizzardJ: Brendan Powell |
27/1 | -21131 | 7.97 | 11.7% | 3.6% | +8.1 | ||||||||
| 4 | Poniros⭐ VALUE T: W P MullinsJ: Danny Mullins |
18.5 | 1-23 | 7.84 | 11.5% | 5.4% | +6.1 | ||||||||
| 5 | Anzadam⭐ VALUE T: W P MullinsJ: Mr P W Mullins |
26/1 | 11-244 | 7.82 | 11.4% | 3.7% | +7.7 | ||||||||
| 6 | The New Lion T: Dan SkeltonJ: Harry Skelton |
3/1 | 111-F1 | 7.71 | 11.3% | 25.0% | -13.7 | ||||||||
| 7 | Brighterdaysahead T: Gordon ElliottJ: Jack Kennedy |
5/1 | 14-321 | 7.54 | 11.0% | 16.7% | -5.7 | ||||||||
| 8 | Tutti Quanti⭐ VALUE T: Paul NichollsJ: Harry Cobden |
25/1 | 61-611 | 6.29 | 9.2% | 3.8% | +5.4 | ||||||||
| 9 | Workahead⭐ VALUE T: Henry De BromheadJ: Darragh O'Keeffe |
80/1 | 310-42 | 6.11 | 8.9% | 1.2% | +7.7 |
| # | Horse | Odds | Form | Form30% | Speed15% | Going5% | C&D15% | Class15% | Conn.10% | Wgt5% | Draw5% | Total | Model% | Mkt% | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Booster Bob T: Olly MurphyJ: Sean Bowen |
24/1 | 231-15 | 7.39 | 5.5% | 4.0% | +1.5 | ||||||||
| 2 | Zurich T: Henry De BromheadJ: Brian Hayes |
13/1 | 30-113 | 7.24 | 5.4% | 7.1% | -1.7 | ||||||||
| 3 | Yes Indeed T: Martin KeighleyJ: Freddie Keighley(5) |
99/1 | 11-P34 | 6.35 | 4.7% | 1.0% | +3.7 | ||||||||
| 4 | Will The Wise T: Gavin CromwellJ: Keith Donoghue |
13.5 | -22140 | 6.34 | 4.7% | 7.4% | -2.7 | ||||||||
| 5 | Down Memory Lane T: Gordon ElliottJ: Jack Kennedy |
16/1 | 324-01 | 6.33 | 4.7% | 5.9% | -1.2 | ||||||||
| 6 | Theatre Native T: Henry De BromheadJ: Mike O'Connor |
47/1 | 1-0396 | 6.19 | 4.6% | 2.1% | +2.5 | ||||||||
| 7 | Boombawn T: Dan SkeltonJ: Tristan Durrell |
64/1 | -44380 | 6.14 | 4.6% | 1.5% | +3.1 | ||||||||
| 8 | Embittered T: Syd HosieJ: Paddy Hanlon(5) |
229/1 | 719P27 | 6.09 | 4.5% | 0.4% | +4.1 | ||||||||
| 9 | No Questions Asked T: Ben PaulingJ: Ben Jones |
22/1 | 0-1231 | 6.06 | 4.5% | 4.3% | +0.2 | ||||||||
| 10 | Jipcot T: Jonjo & A J O'NeillJ: Kielan Woods |
22/1 | 0P-314 | 6.01 | 4.5% | 4.3% | +0.2 | ||||||||
| 11 | Peaky Boy T: Jonjo & A J O'NeillJ: Jonjo O'Neill Jr |
19/1 | /133-F | 5.97 | 4.4% | 5.0% | -0.6 | ||||||||
| 12 | Grandeur d'Ame T: Alan KingJ: Tom Bellamy |
54/1 | P-F03P | 5.67 | 4.2% | 1.8% | +2.4 | ||||||||
| 13 | Western Zephyr T: Mickey BowenJ: Shane Fenelon(5) |
94/1 | 230P-2 | 5.64 | 4.2% | 1.1% | +3.1 | ||||||||
| 14 | O'Moore Park T: W P MullinsJ: Sean O'Keeffe |
31/1 | 0-2050 | 5.63 | 4.2% | 3.1% | +1.1 | ||||||||
| 15 | Madara T: Dan SkeltonJ: Harry Skelton |
5.9 | 842-52 | 5.62 | 4.2% | 16.9% | -12.7 | ||||||||
| 16 | Downmexicoway T: Henry De BromheadJ: Darragh O'Keeffe |
11.5 | P01213 | 5.58 | 4.1% | 8.7% | -4.6 | ||||||||
| 17 | Riskintheground T: Dan SkeltonJ: Charlie Todd |
69/1 | 196049 | 5.43 | 4.0% | 1.4% | +2.6 | ||||||||
| 18 | Jungle Boogie T: Venetia WilliamsJ: Charlie Deutsch |
41/1 | /1P-7P | 5.36 | 4.0% | 2.4% | +1.6 | ||||||||
| 19 | Midnight It Is T: Gavin CromwellJ: Sean Flanagan |
29/1 | 83-097 | 5.35 | 4.0% | 3.3% | +0.7 | ||||||||
| 20 | Moon d'Orange T: John C McConnellJ: Callum Pritchard(3) |
54/1 | 005670 | 5.34 | 4.0% | 1.8% | +2.2 | ||||||||
| 21 | Guard Your Dreams T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-DaviesJ: Sam Twiston-Davies |
45/1 | 74F-21 | 5.23 | 3.9% | 2.2% | +1.7 | ||||||||
| 22 | Dee Capo T: Gordon ElliottJ: Danny Gilligan |
43/1 | 40-1U4 | 4.98 | 3.7% | 2.3% | +1.4 | ||||||||
| 23 | McLaurey T: Emmet MullinsJ: Mark Walsh |
5.9 | 0-4374 | 4.81 | 3.6% | 16.9% | -13.3 |
| # | Horse | Odds | Form | Form30% | Speed15% | Going5% | C&D15% | Class15% | Conn.10% | Wgt5% | Draw5% | Total | Model% | Mkt% | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wade Out T: Olly MurphyJ: Sean Bowen |
9.8 | 16-114 | 6.45 | 7.3% | 10.2% | -2.9 | ||||||||
| 2 | Holokea T: Mickey BowenJ: Shane Fenelon(5) |
40/1 | 21222P | 6.33 | 7.2% | 2.4% | +4.8 | ||||||||
| 3 | Newton Tornado T: Rebecca CurtisJ: Sean Flanagan |
6.5 | 1-F1P1 | 6.07 | 6.9% | 15.4% | -8.5 | ||||||||
| 4 | Kurasso Blue T: Gordon ElliottJ: Jack Kennedy |
18/1 | 51-212 | 6.03 | 6.8% | 5.3% | +1.5 | ||||||||
| 5 | King Of Answers T: Lucinda Russell & Michael ScudamoreJ: Derek Fox |
14.5 | 2-5141 | 5.96 | 6.7% | 6.9% | -0.2 | ||||||||
| 6 | Grand Geste T: Joel Parkinson & Sue SmithJ: Danny McMenamin |
19.5 | -221P1 | 5.80 | 6.6% | 5.1% | +1.5 | ||||||||
| 7 | Silver Thorn T: Emma LavelleJ: Jonathan Burke |
47/1 | P-5114 | 5.39 | 6.1% | 2.1% | +4.0 | ||||||||
| 8 | One Big Bang T: James OwenJ: Alex Chadwick(3) |
15.5 | 5-3213 | 5.37 | 6.1% | 6.5% | -0.4 | ||||||||
| 9 | First Confession T: Joe TizzardJ: Brendan Powell |
49/1 | -335F1 | 5.25 | 5.9% | 2.0% | +3.9 | ||||||||
| 10 | Pic Roc T: Ben PaulingJ: Ben Jones |
23/1 | -U1591 | 4.98 | 5.6% | 4.2% | +1.4 | ||||||||
| 11 | Union Station T: Gavin CromwellJ: Keith Donoghue |
74/1 | 6-2P2U | 4.57 | 5.2% | 1.3% | +3.9 | ||||||||
| 12 | Guard The Moon T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-DaviesJ: Sam Twiston-Davies |
39/1 | PF-1P1 | 4.56 | 5.2% | 2.5% | +2.7 | ||||||||
| 13 | Will Do T: Gordon ElliottJ: Danny Gilligan |
43/1 | -7020P | 4.47 | 5.1% | 2.3% | +2.8 | ||||||||
| 14 | Holloway Queen T: Nicky HendersonJ: James Bowen |
24/1 | P-PU41 | 4.41 | 5.0% | 4.0% | +1.0 | ||||||||
| 15 | Iceberg Theory T: Paul NolanJ: Conor Stone-Walsh(3) |
10/1 | 6P2-11 | 4.37 | 4.9% | 9.1% | -4.2 | ||||||||
| 16 | Backmersackme T: Emmet MullinsJ: Donagh Meyler |
5.5 | -78201 | 4.34 | 4.9% | 18.2% | -13.3 | ||||||||
| 17 | Walking On Air T: Faye BramleyJ: Harry Cobden |
14.5 | F0P-83 | 4.00 | 4.5% | 6.9% | -2.4 |